Despite affordability remaining a market challenge, there are still refuge markets first-time homebuyers can access across the nation.

A new Realtor.com® report took a crack at identifying these refuge markets, and made a list of the top markets for first-time homebuyers (age 25-34) in 2026. 

The rankings are based on the forecasted share of first-time buyers, affordability, inventory and location. Specifically, each market on the top 10 list has a median listing price below the national median and below its metro median, “reinforcing that these are affordable pockets within relatively attainable metros,” as the report stated.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said that these markets “pair comparatively attainable forecasted home prices with strong local amenities and a supportive economic backdrop.”

“For first-time buyers, that combination can mean a more manageable path to homeownership,” she continued.
Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, agreed with Hale, and added that “the places that rise to the top in this ranking are notable precisely because they still offer a viable path to ownership for first-time buyers.”
Here are the forecasted top five markets for first-time homebuyers in 2026:

1. Rochester, New York 

Formerly the No. 2 spot in 2025, Rochester shifted up to No. 1 in 2026, becoming the top predicted market for 25- to 34-year-olds to buy their first homes. The forecasted share of households aged 25 to 34 here is 21.3%.

The Rochester price-to-income ratio comes in at 2.9, with a median listing price of $139,900, a median income (for 25- to 34-year-olds) of $48,617 and a 19.1% share of income spent on a mortgage payment.

The area also boasts a location score of 9.3 (out of 10), the highest on the list. Inventory, however, is a little more scarce at 23 per 1,000 households.

2. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 

Shifting down from the top spot in 2025 to No. 2 in 2026, Harrisburg remains a highly affordable market for 25- to 34-year-old first-time buyers. The forecasted share of 25- to 34-year-old households clocked in at 19.9%.

The area’s price to income ratio sat at a 3, with a median price of $151,999, a median income of $51,285 and a 19.7% share of income spent on a mortgage payment.

Harrisburg’s location score is also tied with Rochester for highest on the list at 9.3. Inventory sits at a decent level of 37.9 per 1,000 households.

3. Granite City, Illinois

Despite having a lower forecasted share of 25- to 34-year-old households at 13%, Granite City clocks in at No. 3 on the list due to a strong price to income ratio.

The area’s price to income ratio is actually the lowest on the list at 1.9, with a median listing price of $119,000, a median income of $62,621 and a 12.6% share of income spent on a mortgage payment.

Granite City also has a strong inventory level at 47.8 per 1,000 households, and a good location score of 7.1.

4. Birmingham, Alabama

Birmingham’s forecasted 18.9% share of 25- to 34-year-old households places it in spot four on the list. 
The area’s price to income ratio of 3.1 is a little higher than others, with a median price of $148,950, a median income of $47,647 and a 20.8% share of income spent on a mortgage payment.

Birmingham also has a good inventory level—43.5 per 1,000 households—and a location score of 6.8.

5. North Little Rock, Arkansas

North Little Rock is very middle of the road like Birmingham—with a forecasted share of 25- to 34-year-old households of 17.4%—landing it in spot 5. 
The area’s price to income ratio also sits a bit higher at 3.2, with a median price of $170,000, a median income of $53,258 and a 21.2% share of income spent on a mortgage payment.

Additionally, North Little Rock’s inventory sits at 39.2 per 1,000 households, and has a 6.7 location score.

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